Where Is Johan Going, and Why?

As the winter meetings commence, there are really only two big names on everyone's radar. Today, I'll talk about Johan Santana, and I'll reserve Miguel Cabrera for tomorrow.

Once again, the two teams most realistically in the running for the game's premier hurler are the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox.

These two teams butt heads over everything, so why not this?

Now, Hank has pulled his soon-to-be-famous "we're pulling out" card, telling the Twins they need to decide by the end of the day today. But something tells me that if the Twins call next week and say, "he's yours if you want him," old Hank'n'Stein will manage to find it in his heart to reconsider.

And, unfortunately, I think that's just what will happen.

Let me explain:

The only reason the Twins are considering trading the best pitcher in the game right now, is because they're bound to get a hell of a lot more for him now than they will if they wait. So the question for them is who's got the best package of prospects and/or cheap long-term talent?

The Yanks are willing to deal Melky Cabrera, Philip Hughes, and one of a dozen 3rd-level hole-fillers for the superstar, and that does a sweet job of replacing Torii Hunter with some young talent and plugging another potential superstar (with years of cheap labor ahead of him) into the Twins' rotation.

The Red Sox have finally agreed to offer Jacob Ellsbury, but refuse to include Jon Lester or Coco Crisp in the same offer with their bright young center fielder, Ellsbury. With Clay Bucholz and a host of other quality prospect and minor league talent being thrown around, they've got some goods.

But I don't think it's enough to beat Cabrera, Hughes and a bonus.

And why is that unfortunate?

Well, unless some other unexpected adjustments are made, making that trade would mean spending (yet again,) a whole hell of a lot of money (can you say $150 MILLION?!?!) for the hundred-or-so wins Santana brings the Yanks over the next six years, while forcing Johnny "wussy-arm" Damon back into centerfield, where he can forever search for the cut-off man.

Meanwhile, pretty darn close to the same number of wins could go to the Twins for less than half the cost before Phil Hughes can stand up and demand his $20-plus million dollar contract.

So is life in the ARod Era.

And what does Santana's exit mean for the Twins?

Well, no matter where Santana ends up going, they're going to be all set for the 2010 season. With their new ball park opening its doors, and a clubhouse full of maturing young talent just getting into their groove, Minnesota will have a nice young core and an exciting team that will draw crowds, sell merchandise, and generally grab the public's attention in a market that has always struggled for the recognition it deserves.

Not bad at all.